Tag: Budgeting

One area where you underestimate your spending.

Posted on by Karac Avalron

Inflation is running rampant. Gas prices are off the charts, rent has gone up, interest rates are rising. The key here is your income is likely not matching the pace. Maybe you got a 5% raise last time (if you are lucky). Inflation at 8%+ you’re losing money in nearly every area. Look this post doesn’t have to be long today, I’m not going to fill it up with elaboration on inflation.

There is likely one area in your life where you are underestimating how much you spend. That area is food. Yes, those $4-dollar coffee’s you buy twice a day, that organic ketchup on and on. Food prices rarely go down and the creep on food prices happens gradually. Here’s the rub, that food that you purchase, unless you buy a lot locally, has to be processed, shipped and stocked. All of that goes into the price point. So gas is going up? All of the food you’re buying at the super market was trucked in, someone had to pay for gas to get those products there.

Here is a link to a world food price index Now this is something finance professionals use to gauge real inflation numbers. I’m not suggesting you delve deeply into this. What this site does is aggregates average prices around the world for common food categories (meat, milk, sugar) and comes up with a “global average”. In 2004 the FPI (food price index) was 65.6 today it is 158.5.

I don’t care how much they charge for coffee.

A remarkable increase right? The key here is this never goes back below the prior year’s index. Unlike gas, housing and interest rates food prices keep going up. This is why your food cost is one of the most important budget numbers you have to know because the “price creep” is real. You are always going to be paying more for food, and now with inflation you are paying more for everything so chances are you are starting to lose wealth AKA purchasing ability.

Tighten up your food purchases, make your coffee at home, pack a lunch instead of eating out. Food continues to go up because we all need it; you die without out. Are you over spending here? Are you aware of exactly how much you spend a month on food? I look at how much I spent and I was blown away. I started a victory garden and that helped. Sure I don’t buy tomatoes anymore but coffee? Meh…

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Finance Lesson: Many of you are going to see this for the first time

Posted on by Karac Avalron

What is “this”? It’s called inflation. Many of you have never seen it and don’t really know what it is. You will begin to, if you haven’t already, hear more about inflation. As your Gen X friends will tell you, in the 70’s and early 80’s inflation was high. Mortgage interest rates at 15%+, yes that’s right you know those rates that are 3% or less now? Goods and services, in proportion to income was very expensive. Gallon of gas in 1980? $1.19 a gallon. I know doesn’t seem like much does it?

Not a lot of corollas back then, hybrids? Didn’t exist yet. You had gas guzzlers that were getting horrible gas mileage. Median income for a family in 1980? 21,000.00 Annual. However, the consumer price index from 1977-1980 increased 13.5%. That means, basically (not precisely) that the item you bought in 1977 was 13.5% more expensive just 3 years later. Now this wasn’t everything of course but it was inflation that was out of control.

Enter 2021. Notice the housing market is hot? Have you been to Home Depot to buy some plants or fencing for your yard? Prices are on average 6.5% higher than 2 years ago (for many goods and services not all). Now this is a result of covid, plus people going back to work plus government stimulus. So we have the trifecta of an inflationary period, increased government subsidy (more money in the market) more people working (more money in the market) and industries shut down for extended periods.

Am I contagious?
High amount of money and less goods and services = costs rise.

That in essence is inflation. Inflation is a good monetary solution to one or both problems. Meaning if prices are going up, demand is high (or goods are in shortage) that induces economic activity in those areas. A deep freeze in Florida kills the orange crop, oranges go up in price. Everyone gets 1000 in cash from the government, you are willing to spend more for the oranges now because someone gave you more money to spend. That gives the person producing the oranges more money to reinvest in orange production, increasing the supply and driving the cost down, overtime.

The issue here is time. The simple examples I have given are all in the abstract of time meaning the end game, increased production of oranges as I exampled, could take years. Now if the money supply decreases (the gov stops sending stimulus) you still have to pay the higher price for the oranges. This ushers in the inflationary period. The other lever that mitigates this scenario is increased wages, this is likely to happen as more and more of the world opens up.

In the short term you should expect to pay more for goods and services. It is a sellers’ market so to speak and if you have a skill or service that is in demand (construction, physical labor, lawn care etc.) this is an opportunity for you to make a lot of money. On the flip side, things you want are going to start costing more. That coffee you love every morning? The trucking company delivering to your shoppe is paying more in gas now, it’s likely that cost will transfer to how much your coffee costs.

Inflation is the reality of a good economy going through a natural ebb and flow. It’s not fun when things go up in price, unless you’re the one selling the item and making more money. I believe we are entering into an inflationary period, many of you have never seen it and will wonder what the hell is going on. $3.00 a gallon for gas? Very likely. Remember to keep an eye on your spending and keep an eye on wages for your chosen profession. It’s likely that as costs go up, so will wages but you must be willing to leverage your skill set (and possibly move jobs) to make more to mitigate the costs.

I think we are heading for a good period for workers, things are opening up and there will be good jobs to be had. The down side is inflation is starting to creep in and it’s been so low for so long I don’t think we can escape it this time.

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