Tag: Corona Virus

Anxiety: How to deal with a Recession

Posted on by Karac Avalron

Yes, you are going to hear this word “Recession” more and more. Let’s establish clearly what a recession is. A recession, in economics, is a downward trend in the business cycle characterized by a decline in production and employment, which in turn causes the incomes and spending of households to decline. Inflation is part of this but basically the best way to measure a recession is to check on what the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is in your country. If it decreases for two consecutive quarters, it’s a recession.

The GDP is a broad measure, but it encompasses many different economic factors. In the U.S. the 1st quarter of 2022 declined from the previous quarter. So in July we will get the 2nd quarter results for the U.S. and it’s likely to decline again based on the inflation we are seeing. We also have the oddity of the economic conditions from the Pandemic. Manufacturing was silent for long periods decreasing supply (which makes things more expensive). You also had governments increasing their production of currency in the form of aid (increasing the money supply, makes it less valuable). Last, you had many people leaving the workforce. Boomers retired and many people went to the “Gig” economy.

This is putting pressure on companies as there are not enough workers. When you have a shortage of labor, what generally happens is the higher end positions fill up first. What is left is the lower pay jobs that most don’t want to do. So you get this weird situation where there are jobs to be filled but those looking for work don’t want them. Then you get a war, which impacts commodities (oil and wheat) which inflame all of the above.

A storm is brewing, are you ready?

So this is a perfect storm of economic factors. It would be a real stretch to say that a recession isn’t coming. For those of us with anxiety this is going to be the next fear proposition. This will come at a time in the U.S. where mid-term elections are happening as well. It’s going to be a mess if you have anxiety. I wish I had some wonderful advice to get through this, I really don’t. Over the summer the noise will pick up, you will be bludgeoned with it. If a recession drags through the end of the year earnings will be impacted for companies and the employment situation might flip as well.

Yes, this is a mess. So as someone with anxiety how do we deal with this? STOCKPILE CASH NOW. I normally recommend people have a 3-6 month emergency fund, I would now recommend 6-9 months, a year if you can. What is that? You take the average of your monthly bills time 9 months and that amount of cash should be sitting somewhere for you to easily access it. I know that’s a tall order for many but that cash will allow you to weather a short to mid-term storm.

Start tightening up the budget now. Start selling extra possessions you don’t really need/use and bank that money. Hopefully you don’t need it, but I suspect 2022 is going to be a down economic year for the world. I don’t see things improving much until after the U.S. mid-term elections and even then there are no guarantees. Build up your cash reserves now.

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Anxiety – An hour matters     

Posted on by Karac Avalron

This is going to be a quick post today but I think it’s a critical “add on” for your life that if you can execute your anxiety will improve. All of us have things going on, work, kids, pets, significant others, parents. On top of that we have 24-7 access to screens which enable us to view every bit of information (good or bad) that is occurring in real time. The environment for anxiety is horrible right now.

There is one quick thing you can do, take an hour. Yes 1 hour a day where the screens are shut off and you do something else. “Well what the hell am I supposed to do?” That’s a good question, below is a list of things I do on my hour.

  1. Go for a walk
  2. Read a book or magazine
  3. Take a nap
  4. Stare at the ceiling
  5. Sit in my car
  6. Go for a drive

Now of course some of these activities aren’t going to be a full hour, they may be more or less. The point here is you have to invest into yourself and recapture time. Time is the most valuable commodity in the world, hands down. By taking 1 hour for yourself you are creating a habit. Ideally this habit grows and you start demanding more then an hour. Soon you will be creating time spaces in your life where you are doing the things you want to do, when you want to do them.

But first, you have to find and take an hour. You can do that.

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The next fear proposition: Oil

Posted on by Karac Avalron

Those in power, all over the world maintain it with different forms of fear. The key component to this power is the notion that they are the only ones who can protect you from the fear. It’s a mutation of the old way fear used to work (and still does in some places) that there was an inferred threat of physical harm. Now that still exists to a degree, you have cancel culture as well which affects the same outcome.

Since we had a steady diet of fear for the last two years in the west, it was clearly highly effective. Most people complied, that’s what people in power want your compliance to ensure their security over power. We saw this after 9/11 as well, we got a whole new government agency “Homeland Security” to deal with that fear proposition, I wonder what agency will be created via the pandemic?

We now have a messy situation in Ukraine, it’s horrible. War sucks, but this is by no means exclusive to Russia. The U.S. has engaged in wars in nearly every decade since WWII. The issue here is Russia supply a huge amount of fossil fuels to the world. There’s the rub, and your new fear proposition. You see oil and gas prices will go up, that affects everything. All those goods you buy are delivered by a vehicle that requires an oil product.

Enough
Comply or else

You should start to see $5 for a gallon of gas soon in the U.S. (for my foreign friends that’s very high for us). This war and oil shortage will be the next fear proposition. Watch closely the legacy media and how this is woven into a new narrative. Conservatives will scream about energy independence and how liberals want to crush the economy. Liberals will scream about converting to alternative fuel sources. Both are partially right, and partially wrong.

The issue is, the tone and immediacy that will be presented by each. It will reach a fervor to the point of crisis. How many times did you turn on the news in the last few years and saw “COVID CRISIS”? Its effective, many people succumb to fear propositions. The immediacy of the narrative is the hook, no one is asking “what will this be like in 2025?” you can’t do that because if the threat isn’t imminent it’s not effective to administer control.

Rationing, limits to vehicles I think the sky is the limit here given the absurdity we saw during Covid (this store can open, BUT NOT THAT ONE!!!!!). This will spike your anxiety, cause you to silo people who do not share you view point on the matter and generally continue on the omnipresent cultural “weight” we have had in the west for years now. All sides do this, and for those of us out there in the world trying to make it through another day? Well you are a number, a statistic. Your personal situation isn’t important to those who want power, only your compliance.

This fear cycle is longer than most that I have witnessed. It’s not going to go on forever but those with power have had their “cages rattled” for lack of a better term. Populism, the internet, free enterprise…. They are losing control, and they don’t like it.

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Enough

Never forget – Indulge my rant, I don’t do it often.

Posted on by Karac Avalron

Remember this time in our collective history. Remember the pandemic and the voices who demanded cancellation, banning, demonetization. Remember the voices who demanded you be penalized for not conforming to their narrative. Remember the voices who demanded you put something into your body, whether you wanted to or not. Never forget their names, their persona’s, their social media accounts.

These are some of the most dangerous people in the world and the pandemic exposed them.

They are driven by fear, they are weak. These are the types of individuals who will use phrases like “they say” to bolster their arguments as to why you should conform to their desired outcome. You know who they are now, you have no excuses should you chose to engage with them. They were willing to penalize you to the extreme to get their way, will you forget it? Will you offer them quarter when the tide ebbs and in the future they find themselves adrift?

It’s all abstract until you are the one who runs afoul of the narrative. The nature of power is it is all consuming. Those who want it, and taste it, keep pushing for more. Soon even those who wanted you cancelled will be in the cross hairs. Will you come to their aid? Will you stand up for them? Will you recognize that what is happening to them, they themselves tried to do to you?

Plastic destroys the environment
Us vs Them = Garbage

It’s all very dark isn’t it? Its dystopian and it does not bode well for the future discourse. Everyone has a soap box now, a you tube channel, a blog, a podcast. If you were one of those who were advocating penalizing others during one of the most challenging times in our modern social history, you will find many out there who will not forget you.

You typed the words, you created the videos, you made the podcasts, you posted the tweets. You have been exposed, you gave no quarter, and you will get none.

For my frequent readers this is not one of my normal posts and I want to be clear this is not directed at anyone specific. It is more of a cautionary tale really. Consequences is no longer a popular theme in today’s social construct. It’s very rare when it happens, but when it does it can be devastating. Be careful what you say to people, how you frame it, the level of vitriol you emit. The social construct has indeed changed a lot, forgiveness, understanding and compassion are no longer the ideal.

When will the next phase of the social dynamic emerge? Will it be a revisit of our prior ideals or a new harsher one? One based on consequences? I think how we have chosen to treat one another over the last few years is going to have deep social ramifications for many years to come. I for one won’t forget all the noise, the fear mongering, the propaganda, and I won’t forget who was pontificating it. I will never listen to them again.

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Does anxiety make you smarter?

Posted on by Karac Avalron

Well “smarter” being the key word here. It’s a logical leap to say that those with anxiety experience a broad range of emotions so proclaiming emotional intelligence isn’t such a stretch. Actual intelligence/being smarter is often equated to problem solving but navigating complex emotional situations does require a high degree of intelligence. It’s not a topic I have explored a great deal on this blogs anxiety postings but I found a good article here that discusses it more broadly.

From the article: “Do everything you can to avoid situations that might feel stressful, or embarrassing, or a little scary, and then you’ll be less able to deal effectively with those emotions when they do occur. New research backs up that position. A 2021 study found that engaging in a variety of daily activities correlated with experiencing a broader range of emotions, and with it increased levels of happiness and life satisfaction.”

Now that in of itself isn’t a controversial statement. The article doesn’t get to deep into specifics in the prose but it has citations to three different studies supporting the claims made which are pretty decent. The article really reinforces the notion that we all have to be “out there” anyway and emotional intelligence translates into a broader perspective of life which lends itself to a greater ability to muster wisdom. At its core that’s what the article is trying to impart and it achieves it.

This is making my stomach hurt.

For those of us with anxiety it’s challenging to correlate our responses to intelligence. We have been conditioned for decades to equate anxiety as a negative attribute. To assume something is wrong with us if we feel uncomfortable etc. Now there is a fine line and this is what REALLY happens when you go down the anxiety rabbit hole is you discover that anxiety itself is natural and is a gateway to intelligence. The trick is there is no universal threshold it is dependent on the individual based on their accumulation of anxiety over the years.

Simply put, I may have no problem driving in the snow. You might have been in an accident in snow and are far more anxious about it. Do you gain more intelligence then I do from driving in the snow? These are simple concepts but it’s important to make sure we improve our narratives and context on anxiety, and equating anxiety with increased intelligence is a good start.

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How to turn your anxiety into a super power

Posted on by Karac Avalron

For years now I have been doing posts on anxiety where I seek out articles and cite them for the purpose of giving people information. Inevitably many of these articles come boil down to a very simple proposition: change the way you think. I mean anyone with anxiety will tell you If they could do that they would. We get these over simplifications in many areas of life and its tiring. I found an article here that somewhat does this, but gets to the critical aspect of the identification process.

From the article: “Suzuki talks about “the superpower of productivity,” which you can tap into simply by listening carefully to the actual content of your worries. “A very, very common manifestation of anxiety is that ‘what if’ list that comes in your head: What if I get sick with Covid, what if I don’t get an A, what if I can’t remember what the professor said on this part of the test? The superpower that comes with that anxiety-induced what-if list is shifting that into a to-do list,” she explains to Newman. “ 

Chronic Anxiety is like having an itch that you can never scratch.

So the critical point here is identifying the source of the anxiety. Worried about an exam? Study more. I know simple right? The point here is identifying sources of anxiety and attempting to address them directly. This action begins the process of the infamous “change how you think” narrative and why this article is so valuable. You are likely never going to escape anxiety completely but if there are reoccurring issues that create anxiety, identifying them and working toward addressing them directly is going to bare a lot of fruit for your mental state.

Many of us, myself included have a multifaceted issue. Meaning it’s never just one thing, it’s an accumulation of many small issues that converge and lead to intrusive thoughts and debilitating mood swings. Take one issue at a time, if its work, well what part of work specifically? Try and drill down here, get into the weed and really figure out what is driving your anxiety. When you do this you create the conditions by which you can recover faster as you can in many cases address the issue directly and resolve it.

One down, hundreds more to go but its progress….

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When Anxiety turns into a Panic Attack

Posted on by Karac Avalron

If you have anxiety you might be exposed to, or have had a panic attack. This is the physical manifestation of your anxiety. Often it doesn’t play out as the person think’s it will, meaning the “panic” doesn’t nearly equate to the situation more often than not. However, that doesn’t minimize or negate what is actually happening to you. Panic often delves into physical conditions that impact you negatively. Examples:

  • Shortness of breath or hyperventilation
  • Heart palpitations or racing heart
  • Chest pain or discomfort
  • Trembling or shaking
  • Choking feeling
  • Feeling unreal or detached from your surroundings
  • Sweating
  • Nausea or upset stomach
  • Feeling dizzy, light-headed, or faint
  • Numbness or tingling sensations
  • Hot or cold flashes
  • Fear of dying, losing control, or going crazy

The real problem is these attacks can happen at any time. Literally ANYTHING can be a trigger and this is, for a lot of people where anxiety ends up. They live in fear not of, I don’t know, let’s say spiders, but the PANIC that seeing the spider will invoke. I’ve never had a serious panic attack, I have heard in my life when the subject comes up in my social circle there is an immediate dismissal. “It’s not that bad” or “They made a mountain out of a mole hill”.

Where there is smoke, there is fire.

What that narrative does is it creates the conditions by which someone who might have panic attacks has even more anxiety about it. Our culture celebrates strength and fortitude in essentially all ethnic backgrounds for each gender. Having anxiety that leads to a panic attack doesn’t make you weak, it’s not something you should be ashamed of and if you have people in your life telling you it’s not a big deal you should consider strongly limiting your time with them.

In extreme cases a panic attack can lead to death, either by suicide, heart attack or loss of control of your faculties. BREATHE!

I am not patronizing you, it sometimes is that simple. Even if you are in the middle of a grocery store and you think people are staring at you and you are in full panic, take slow deep breaths. 10 slow deep breaths is a minute of your life, you can do this and any social anxiety you may derive from that 1 minute where you think people are staring at you will dissipate quickly as your panic starts to decrease with every breath.

You aren’t alone, you are not abnormal. You have anxiety and you need to be honest with yourself about it. When in doubt, take a deep breath.

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Finance tip – The Credit Score Secret

Posted on by Karac Avalron

So the first finance piece on the blog for 2022 but the same disclaimer…. I am finance professional with 30 years of experience. That said the views expressed on this blog regarding personal finance are my opinion and any financial decisions you make you should do so after having done your own personal research.

If you live in the western world you have a credit score. Now our friends in the east (our Asian and Australian friends) might have something similar, if they do I am not familiar with what it is but its yet another “number” you are given to identify your financial prowess. Now that we are in the midst of the digital age it is very easy to accumulate data on consumers.

Bitcoin is a game changer

Be under no illusion, every financial transaction you make is being stored in some data base and scrubbed as part of meta data for analytics. How many people bought tooth brushes in Dec as opposed to Feb… That data is then resold to manufactures and other large corporations for great profit. Let’s follow the example a bit further… Let’s assume that in Dec tooth brush sales are 300% higher than Feb. That’s critical information for someone who makes toothbrushes, that could be the lynch pin info that creates high profits for their company. You get the idea.

So you as a consumer are given a credit score. It has been pumped up and built up to be a reflection on your overall prowess as an economic entity. Potential employers will do a “credit check” on you. Some dating sites as part of the vetting system perform these checks as a service for their clients. You even have social conversations (well pre covid anyway) where people would actively talk about their credit score as if it were some bench mark for success.

Here is “The Credit Score Secret”

The credit scores purpose is to grade you on your ability to finance material items you can’t afford

Simply put, your credit score is a benchmark on your ability to make payments on items you can’t otherwise pay for outright. Its far more lucrative for a company to sell you something and have you pay overtime with interest. First, they make more over time due to interest and Second, they can up sell you additional services that complement the original purchase.

The bottom line is, you only need a credit score if you are buying something you can’t afford. In my opinion, the only case you should ever need this is when purchasing a house. You should not be buying other items unless you can pay for them outright, and yes that means cars too. I can bend a little on cars but you don’t need a 50K car, a 10K car will suffice. It’s another illusion the finance industry has created for you.

“Give them a score so they can measure themselves against others”. Its clever, sinister marketing. That score is a curse because it really means you have a high probability of purchasing things you can’t afford and paying for them over time. It’s an indication of how poor at finance you really are, financing a TV, A vacation, a phone… It means you’re willing to pay MORE than the item would normally sell for.

Don’t be fooled by the finance industry. They want you to be good little consumers. “payments” means “interest” and interest is pure profit for them. The item is still worth 20k regardless, but you, because you want it now are willing to pay 30K for it over 10 years because you want it now. Companies love that mentality and that is the “credit score secret”

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Deltacron – The final product?

Posted on by Karac Avalron

If you have anxiety covid has been a disaster. It’s one thing to have to worry about getting sick, its another to have everyone screaming at the top of their lungs about getting sick. It never seems to end either, remember YEARS ago (yes years) when the prevailing narrative was “a few weeks and we will be back to normal”. That’s not happening anytime soon. So we have a new variant discovered and the marketing has already begun. It’s being called “Deltacron” a combo of TWO variants to bring you even more mental anguish.

This ride never ends does it? I mean we can be getting new variants for decades. So is this the final product? I suspect it might be, or the next to last. You see part of this is marketing. Marketing to get you to get vaccinated (which you should) marketing to get you hooked and keep clicking and watching. It’s naïve to think that Covid hasn’t become commercial and political. The media loves this, it gives them an easy story every night which allows for them to run the full gambit of stories. Deaths, illnesses, mask mandates, on and on.

Even vaccinated people get covid.

I know this sounds cynical but this is our reality, I mean at this point you know what covid is you are either vaccinated or you aren’t. Harping on a new variant, how does that change the conversation? Answer = it doesn’t. It’s not meant to. It’s meant to CONTINUE the same conversation and keep tens of millions of people in a state of flux. What other reason could there be? “You’re an anti vaxxer!!!!! Burn it with fire” No I’m not I am vaccinated, lol.

I just see what’s coming, as we’ve seen this play out for a few years now. Don’t believe me? In the next few weeks “Deltacron” will be on the news regularly. Your political “leaders” will talk about it and how you “need to” do X, Y or Z. I hope I am wrong and if I am I will be happy to eat my words. For those of us with Anxiety? No reprieve. You get no rest from the covid onslaught.

You should get vaccinated, you should get a booster, you should wear a mask if other people are uncomfortable. You should also, shut off main stream media. Remove yourself from people who go on and on about covid and what YOU should be doing. Most importantly keep trying to do the things you want to do and try not to let covid permeate every aspect of your life.

Hang in there, the rollercoaster ride isn’t over yet.

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Traveling today no formal post

Posted on by Karac Avalron

I am sitting at my home PC typing this, shirt and tie on. I know…. Today I actually have to travel for business. Its been a while. I used to travel a lot a decade or so a go for work. Got a chance to see a lot of the U.S. as a result. Anyway no formal post today.

As always thanks so much for supporting my blog I really appreciate it. Will be back on Wed with a formal post. Take care.